Thursday, 31 March 2011

Energy Sufficiency of the Future

Energy is what keeps us going
For everything we do, we need energy. If you don't know what hunger is, then realising that the first step is energy for the body might be casual. But it's not. We could only develop as a human race when we found out how to generate enough energy so that not all members of the community need to supply food. When that was established we needed even more energy to fuel the activities of those that develop new technology. Simply put, energy is what keeps us going.

Oil made energy cheap
The technological leaps in the past few centuries are all linked to the knowledge to use oil. Oil is a wonderfull product, maybe too underappreciated. It is cheap to obtain, it is safe to handle, it contains the building blocks of life (any carbo structure) and it packs a smackload of energy. For the moment there is not a single alternative that tops oil in all these fields. Maybe coal can measure up, but it's drawback is that it's much more poluting than oil.

We know oil is limited. What are the alternatives?
Since oil is such a wonderfull product, it is a shame we use it just to burn. Because that is essesialy what combustion engines do. Burn oil to get energy. We could use the oil for far more interesting products like drugs, plastics, paint, etc... the list is endless. All these products cannot be as simple produced without oil. So it is essential that we for our need of energy, other means are necessary. Alternatives are natural gas, hydrogen and nuclear power.

Electricity
Electricity for example is a common source of energy. But unfortunatly electricity is merely a carrier of energy, and not a source of energy. Electricity can be obtained from all sorts of renewable sources (wind, water, sun) but as of today, a large proportion is still gained from just burning oil. Electricty is cheap to obtain, relatively safe to handle, can be transformed in all sorts of energy, but cannot be stored. We're not talking about a simple battery here. We're talking about large strategic reserves. Electricity cannot be transported over large distances. So all good things about electricity are valid as long as it can be produced hic et nunc. Production should be done by renewable sources, but for now we rely on other means.

Natural Gas
It is still abundant and can be simply burned to obtain electricity where needed. It is more dificult to handle, more difficult to store and more difficult to produce with, but it packs a lot of energy. It's emission from burning is not as poluting, but still much more than should be acceptable. All in all, I'd say that natural gas will remain a dominant source of energy for the next 100 years. But it too has it's limited sources.

Hydrogen
The gas has some serious advantages coupled with disadvantages. It can be obtained from plain water (for now it is produced from natural gas), so it's supply is endless. It packs a lot of energy and is absolutly not poluting because burning hydrogen with oxigen given plain water. The downside is that it too is difficult to store long term and difficult to handle.

Nuclear power
Nuclear fission, splitting atoms, provides around 25% of the global energy. It is cheap, easy to store, no green house gas emission, and packs tons of energy. But as we all know, it is dangerous to handle and it's waste products remain a long term hazard. Nonetheless, nuclear fission is still a reliable source of energy for the comming 100 years.
Nuclear fusion on the other hand, is a promissing technology. Unfortunatly, it's been promission for over 50 years now. Joining 2 hydrogen cores yields an enormous amount of energy. But today it requires more energy to initiate than energy released. A negative yield. If we could turn this around and produce more energy than that is consumed, there would be an endless source of energy that is not poluting, that packs a lot of energy, but lacks the versatility from oil as it suffers the same drawbacks because the energy carrier would be electricity.

Have we reached the pinnacle?
With no other sources that can replace oil, and oil is limited, does this mean we will soon face a downfall in the develeopment degree of our society? Yes and No. We have about 50 years time to turn the oil dependency into something else. And most probably it will be a mixture of all alternatives explained above. Is there any hope for a source of infite clean energy? Yes, that's the good thing.

The Future on Green Energy?
Personally I don't believe the future belongs to the renewable energy source, because simply put, we've already evolved beyond that. Our energy needs will only rise and cannot be matched by green energy alone. It would be fantastic if we pull it of, but I doubt that poorer developed countries will have the capacity to invest in these types of energy sources.

The Future on Technology?
We have been spoiled with all sort of technological advancements that we rely on the scientist to solve every problem. This naieve thinking is a bubble that has already bursted. When the first nuclear plants were erected, there was no plan for the nuclear waste. Yet everyone was confident that in the near future, a good solution would be found. Well, 50 years later, there is still nothing. The russians dump it in the deepests gorges in the ocean, other try to cover it with tons of earth. The problem remains, it is only replaced.

I do have hope!
Yet, there is one breakthrough that will give us the ideal world with renewable unlimited energy: superconductors. A superconductor material is a material where electricity flows freely without resistance. It creates flawless magnetic fields and can make electricity storage devices. In other words, it can overcome all the drawbacks from electricy. But it gets better. Who cares about a perfect carrier if you don't have the perfect source? Well, the perfect magnetic field of a superconductor can help in overcomming the nuclear fission yield problem. And thus we'll have unlimited source and carrier of energy. And the world population will explode, but that's another story.

Wednesday, 30 March 2011

Society and Game Theory

The Game Theory
The Game Theory is an economic model that analyses the strategics interest of different parties, and try to apply this insight to real life market situation. By means of simple games, the strategy of the players on the market are modeled. In this article I will explain how this model can be applied to our society.

Example:
Let's try a simple example. You have the choice between A and B, and your competitor has the same strategic choice. If they know that both will win only when they both choose B and that they both will loose if both choose A, but that one will loose and one will win if either one choose A over B.
PlayerAB
Aloss/losswin/loss
Bloss/winwin/win

So as long as they both choose B they will win, but so does the competitor. If anyone deviates from the ideal strategy (B-B) then they will win as long as the competitor is not making the same choice, because then they end in the worst scenario where they both loose (A-A).

This might seem like some theoretical abstract thinking, but I'll give a real life example: Supermarket A and B need to decide what their product will be priced. If they both choose a high selling price, they both make more profit. If one chooses to lower the price, then he will make more profit because his competitor will not sell due to the higher price. If they both lower the price, they both equal sales, but at a lower profit. I admit that there are a whole lot of other factors involved, but you get the idea.


Nash Equilibrium.
The ideal situation that leads to a win-win situation is called the Nash Equilibrium. This equilibrium can only be reached if everyone cooperates to the ideal strategy. The moment someone deviates, this means profit only for the 'deviant'. I would like to apply this concept to our society and use it to define good and evil.

In Traffic:
A contemporary example would be one we all experienced, namely traffic jams. If one lane is blocked and 2 lanes need to join, there is an ideal strategy that will be beneficial for all, namely the controlled one after one joining in. As soon as one individual starts a slalom, he worses the situation for both lanes, except for himself

In General:
In our society we try as well as we can to maintain the accepted norms and conducts by creating and enforcing the law. We know that if we all adhere to the law, it makes life easier for all of us. If one individual commits a crime, this might be personal beneficial, but harming the society in return. The fundamental guidelines to keep a society intact are written down in all holy books, in all early works describing early civilisation. Religion has been a tool to enforce and maintain the common sense of acting good.

Good and Evil
We have the natural ability that our concience is adapting to the standards of Good and Evil. Which is, now that you read this article, nothing more than the ideal strategy vs the deviant. I would use the ideal strategy as the definition for Good, the acts that are benficial to the whole group, in the long term, if we all cooperate. Evil would then be defined by the deviant strategy, where one individual chooses not to follow the law, benefitting from short term and personal gain.

Anarchy
However, I also think that the ideal strategy is not so much imbedded in our human nature. Once the law enforcement fails, we see that society quickly detoriate into anarchy, meaning the loss-loss situation for all. Common sources of sudden detoriation in civilized societies are dramatic events such as natural disasters, war, etc. Although we all know that behaving like deviants, will negatively affect all, we, as humans, choose this strategy as soon as law enforcement ceases. This leads me to beleave that we, as a human race, are not yet civilized. We merely know how to enforce and maintain civilization.

Development
Are we then no better than animals? Probably yes, but possibly no. Nature has learned, especially for lesser life forms, that acting according the ideal strategy is the only way to be succesfull. Ants or bees will sacrifice themselves without hesitation if it serves the community. In fact, it is their great evolutionary success. Therefore we could question if our urge to search the edge of morally aceptable deeds is due to our higher form of development. Are primitive organism better capable of cooperation, of following the ideal strategy? Is it a trade off? develop ourselves as individuals and then fall as a society?

Tuesday, 29 March 2011

This is where I work

Sometimes it's just not true
Most of the time you try to be truthfull, but sometimes you just can't help to exagerate a tad. Especially if you can't really compete. I'm sure that most of you have a fancy office. But that's nothing compared to mine. I'm sure you've met those braggers. Well, now I got myself something to brag about as well:
Nice memories
Don't you just hate those that start randomly spamming stories about how great this or that was. And then you find yourself dumbfounded as you can't come up with something nearly as nice? Well yes. I have experienced that, but no more. I always have a back up story ready in these cases. More often than not I start telling how I was invited with the big shots to an exotic paradise for a team dinner where they congratulated me and sent me off to my favourite site.

Monday, 28 March 2011

Excellent Map Generator

Create a whole Island with a click
For those that are interested in world building projects or are just looking for inspiration for their next RPG campaign, I found the right tool here. It randomly generates polygons that are transformed into biomes, depending on altitude and moisture. Surprisingly, you can find volcanos, ice lakes and swamps, but more often just a nice island with a central mountain and grassland/forests below.


Radial 2D view
Shape parameter
More importantly is the ability to shape the island randomly. I used the Radial and Perlin randomisers to give a wide and exciting shapes of islands. The Square and Blob shapes are too limited. Almost never you'd find a square island (or continent for that matter) a realistic build.

The Views
Biomes and Smooth shows the island without it's polygons and with a bit of blur. I like the Smooth view the most as it feels the most map-like.
2D slopes transforms the polygons into rendering height in 2D scale. It gives a very nice look to the whole map. It's only drawback are the sharp edges that may work on mountains, but not on rolling hills. The 3D slopes are even more impressive, and it makes the island rotate. It suffers the same drawback as the 2D slope.
What is trully amazing in this nifty widget is the ability to view it elevation and moisture in colorcode, but more importantly the watersheds in a polygon view. This view enables you to determine wich regions contribute to which rivers. Impressive feature.

Remarkable Examples
Perlin seed 51808-8 gives a continent with large lake inland. Strange enough, the lake connects to the ocean via 3 rivers. It cetainly is an interesting landmass if you consider this particular build.

If you let my imagination run wild, I see a world with many watertribesn with their respective strongholds around their connecting rivers.
In the snowy mountains some kind if disaster can unfold (heavy rain/snow, no snow at all, polluted snow, etc...) so that the lake is rising/lowering/poisoned.




 
Another example I'd like to share is the Perlin 76151-8, which has the particular set up of a snowed mountain side to side with a volcano. On the other side of the bay lies a peacefull forrest nation, while on the main continent the forces of good (united under the snow mountain) are in conflict with the forces of evil (united under the volcano). Not only the inhabitants are fighting eachother, also the geological terrain tries to conquer the other by means of thunderstorms (snow mountain) and lava flows (volcano). Unsurprising, you would see soldiers with a lighting mark fight those with a fire mark.

Sunday, 27 March 2011

How the world of fantasy has evolved and gave us superheros.

The world of Fantasy
You could say that fantasy has always existed. Mostly to escape their miserable situation, sometimes just for fun. But while the imagined fiction is loosly based on the structures as in real life, the creator lets his imagination run wild and creates a world that is inconceivable in the real world. In the ancient times, stories about Gods and Demigods, Heros and Legends and lots of local lore were traditional material. These stories were based on even older ones, adding each time new and exciting powers to the agonists. Our modern western fantasy fiction seems to be based on the medieval times, romanticized into a world of brave knights and princesses. Different genres includes these architypes, ranging from roll playing games, video games, movies, graphic novels, fantasy fiction, etc.

A Hero like we all are
But typical for the postmodernistic era we live in, is the melting pot of influences so that nothing is really invented. What is merely done is mixing different styles or influences because the wide spread information makes it possible to taste all sorts of lore that was preserved. We seem to have no trouble mixing the brave knight from the medieval times with the werewolf from the victorian times toghether with a ninja from feudal Japan. But one thing that we have severly upgraded is their powers. In all the legends, the heros are common people that perform extraordinary feats due to their legendary bravery or cunning. The catch is that everyone in the audience can identify himself with these protagonist and continue the dream at home in the all too familiar 'what if' scenario.

Adding Superpowers
What the ancient greeks were good at is inventing supernatural powers. The same sort of powers return in the Viking mythology. It is impossible for the common man to throw lightning, create storms at sea or fly around. But these were gods. Or Demigods. Supernatural powers for supernatural beings. Now in our individualistic society, we no longer have that connection with the supernatural beings as most of the western religions (christianity, judeïsm, islam) have only one true god. The next step is rather obvious, just give the superpower to the common folks, and a hero is instantly created. Just take John Doe. One day he discovers he can create flames at will. Bam. Superhero born.

Weak reasons, weak motivation, but it looks Cool.To make the story catching, all sorts of silly motives or origins have been invented. None of them works ofcourse and asks a great empathy from the viewer/listener. Falling in a barrel of nuclear waste as a kid, will under no circumstances give you the ability to fly. Or cast lighting. Or crawl around like a spider. Or whatever. Nonetheless are we more than willing to follow the hero on his heroic quest, more often involving a love story as well. All this together signals -to me at least- that the hero with the superpower is a shallow creature, reduced to his power. To counter this, archvillains are created that are even more powerfull, dramatic love stories, all that to show a vulnarable hero, always going through some sort of crisis. But this is all a veil to cover the real identity of the hero: a common man with supernatural powers that look Cool. Up to you if you go home and continue the dream, but I prefer the common man who performs an heroic act out of bravery, necessity or, you know, plot. Because I am a common man. We all are.

Saturday, 26 March 2011

Why are all good things bad?

Fat is so Sweet
All good things in life come with a kickback. I like to rest in my backyard for a while, but before you know it, you're applying either sunblock or aftersun. Why would anyone create this world where every temptation kicks like a mule when you expect it the least? What is the irony of making us weakwilled against the good things in life? I cannot believe there would be a creator so cynic to create such a world. The only remaining option would be the inherent human weakness for bad things. And apparently we are all just the same. We like to eat a nice piece of fried food, but then we get fat and die our heart out. We like to do sports, but then we get an injury that drops us back at condition zero. Even love is blind. And fat is sweet.

It is a Test!
I heard a nice angle on this topic. Our creator is testing us. Only if we can resist the temptations, we will live happily. Now, that is the biggest heap of feaces I've ever heard. Firstly because I don't believe in our creator, but more importantly because we don't need to be tested. Being tested the whole live, leaves no room for a normal way of live. Imagine a student that has to take exams every single day of his life. There would be no room for anything else. In short, if you believe it is a test, then the creator is putting us in a threadmill and shuts us out of any purpose. And I refuse to believe that. If you have a pet, or even a child you love very much, you are not doing it a favour by constantly putting it to the test.

You are wrong because we are not constantly in temptation!
Ofcourse we are, you silly. In the Eastern religion they figured that out way before they did in the West. Buddism focusses on throwing off any distraction, and the emphasis lies soley on self deployment through inner calm. Did you not read the first paragraph? Everything we like has a drawback. It is the story of our live until we die. That is the reassuring endnote of our journey. Whatever we do, our ending is the same. Be it more painfull physical or emotional for some than for others. The whole point i'm making is that the balancing act between good and bad is what keeps us awake. You need the down moments to enjoy the up moments. You enjoy a cold drink more in the summer than in the winter. Even love brings us to such heights (and debts), only to enjoy the happy moments. That is what I believe is in our nature. But that doesn't explain why the world around us seems to behave the same way.

The Good, the Bad and the Sin
We know in our heart that we will repend some actions, even before we take them. Jumping of that cliff is going to hurt you one way or another, yet you take the plunge and enjoy every second before contact. Religion has tought about this as well, and gave it the label 'Sin'. A clever mechanism to show us that whatever challange we take, we should be aware that it can lead to side effects. Therefore I suggest that as of today I will no longer reflect my actions upfront. If I'm doing the right thing, and enjoy my life in moderation, then I'm passing the test every single day. I will not know that I've lived, but at least I will not be kicked by a mule.

Thursday, 24 March 2011

The Four Types of Fantasy players

The Fantasy Consumer is an Escapist.
Wheter you are reading a book, watching a movie or playing a game, chances are that you are doing this merely to enjoy yourself. In this brief moment of distraction, you can emerge yourself in another worlds, away from the daily worries. No need to feel guilty. This behaviour can be translated as well into 'caveman tells stories around the campfire'. It is in our nature to entertain and be entertained. Life is complicated enough not to. Sharing this general feeling of escaping the daily life, we seek different aspects in our escape. Not all like to watch violent or horror movies. Some like to raise a happy little family as well. In this article I'll focus on the ones that play fantasy games since those have the greatest potential of escaping into a completely different world. Nonetheless, we are still human, and human traits are therefore incorporated in the gameplay, resulting into 4 different types of players.

The Explorer, Seeker of new Stimuli.
This type of player loves to emerge himself in the newly created world. His empathy with his avatar or the protagonist is intens. He likes to explore the world and establish an profound feeling of knowledge about it. But once familiar with the new grounds, he moves onwards to new horizons. This constantly changing of enviroment keeps the interest and this type of player will enjoy every expansion or sequal. The joy comes from new stimuli, new stories, new local lore.

The Gatherer, Collector of Gear and Achievements.
This player loves to gather resources, trade, commerce and gains satisfaction when he finds a bargain on the ingame economy. Always striving for new, better, upgraded gear, the gatherer is the type of player that will never settle for suboptimal gear. Quests, set by the game will be completed, and if all ingame content is completed, he will set out goals for himself. All possible achievements will be hunted. Although the character progression is not hampered, the goal is set by himself. These type of players usually analyse the game itself to break the mathematics behind the scene. They are willing to break out the fantasy and create spreadsheet with numbers, only to find the optimal strategy or gear. These players often abandon the game wealthy, but unsatisfied when some challanges are too big to overcome to obtain that last, rare item they do not possess yet or an achievement that seems impossible to obtain.

The Socialiser, Finder of Friends
The Socialiser is the least escapist of the four, since they use the game as a tool to get social relations. Helping out new players, pointing beginners to the right direction and always participating in ingame societies (call them guilds, or clans, or...). That does not exclude them from enjoying the game, as their roll as nestor can only be fullfilled if they possess the necessary knowledge themselves. They will sacrifies their own benefit for the greater good, and have a strong feeling of accomplishment if the group can pass certain goals. They will sacrifies their personal time to help other and be often dissapointed when help is not appreciated or taken advantage of.

The PVPer, Fighter of other Players.
The PVPer (or player versus player) will measure it's performance not by the achievement, their social status or the story, but from his ranking among his peers. He will and enjoys engaging in combat against other human players and finds a great deal of satisfaction when he can beat them. The Gatherer has better gear, and will try to measure up against the PVPer, but will loose, fueling both in their goals. The fantasy world serves as a platform to deploy his skills, not to explore or quench his interest in lore. He will continue to improve his tactics and his character in order to achieve the number 1 in the ranking.

But I recognize myself in all 4 categories!
Don't be so cocky, ofcourse you are a mix of the four. I'm not preaching international truth here. The main point is that while we enjoy leaving our sorrows behind and dive into another world, we maintain our characteristics. You have the opportunity to play or identify yourself with a character that is completely opposite of you in real life, but the way we enjoy the game is always ties to our person. You could be shy and introvert, but play a social character which means that, in fact, you are more social than you'd expect. Deep down inside, you cannot hide yourself and maybe identifying your playing style tells more about yourself than the game.